One of the greatest, unknowns, throughout recent history, is being able to predict, and/ or determine, whether we will experience a buyers, sellers, and/ or, neutral real estate market, and, accurately, predicting, the anticipated duration! There are many factors, scenarios, perceptions, economic (local, regional, national, and international) occurrences, etc, which impact, real estate’s performance, and, thus, its pricing trends. One of these factors, which is often ignored (and/ or, taken for – granted), is politics. Regardless of one’s personal, political preferences, and/ or, perceptions, focuses, beliefs, etc, there should be very little doubt, today’s politics, will, almost always, have some sort of effect, on how real estate performs, etc. With that in mind, this article will attempt to consider, examine, review, and discuss, 3 ways, present – day politics, impacts the near – term performance of real estate.
1. Interest rates; mortgage rates: Interest rates, generally, fluctuate, over – time! Many, historically, have, either, benefited, or lost, based on their ability to factor these in, and predict the tendencies. When the Federal Reserve, decides to keep interest rates down, either, for policy, and/ or, political reasons, mortgage rates are low. This translates to, considerably lower monthly carrying costs, which, means buyers/ homeowners, are able to afford, more house, for their dollars! When this occurs, generally, we witness rising prices. On the converse, higher interest rates, means it becomes more expensive to afford a house, at a particular/ specific price. These trends, are, nearly always, a major factor, in terms of, whether we witness a buyers, sellers, or neutral housing market.
2. Foreign policy; tariffs: World economic conditions, also, are a significant factor, in the short – term, real estate market. Recently, President Trump’s reliance on tariffs, as a significant component of his foreign policy, has translated to, higher costs of certain materials, such as lumber, steel, etc. In addition, foreign policy, may have a significant impact on consumer confidence, employment, etc.
3. Is a recession looming? Will the current 10 year record, of having no recession, continue?: No one can, absolutely, predict, whether we will experience a recessions! We are currently experiencing, a record, ten – years, without a recession! Many economists have predicted one, within the next twelve, to eighteen months, and, how this might affect, potential buyers, and sellers, perceptions, and behaviors, might have a significant impact on the overall real estate market.
One’s use of real estate differs, and, thus, how certain factors, influence the markets, varies. It is, often, wise, to look at the longer – term, for residential housing needs, However, when one invests in real estate, the rates of return, are heavily influenced by many factors, including the ones, mentioned, above!